August unrest
Observer August 23rd, 2011
The rioting in English cities has for the moment passed, and the soul-searching begun. Mr Cameron and Mr Blair, the latter still active, if now in defence of his record, batted it out in detailed pieces at the weekend, in conspicuously non-Murdoch newspapers. From afar, there have been several signs that British life is not what it used to be, and suffering from a dilution of standards. Not least, a tolerance for base language. When the BBC deploys ‘ten quid’ in a news report, or The Independent the commonest of obscenities in a review of opera, one wonders who they are trying to relate to. The expenses scandals and Murdoch allegations have brought an open season mentality towards both politicians and police. And quite some pot and kettle accusations between them. The reputational damage from the dramatic images is significant. The underlying causes are probably joint and several, and will not be fixed in the short term with an ‘initiative a day’ approach. But what is, and was already known, is that riots tend to happen in summer months. Which is also presumably the time when police are short handed, and perhaps less agile this time as events unfolded than they might have been ordinarily. This, at least, should be straightforward enough to fix.
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Succession Events
Observer April 2nd, 2011
Again, succession expectations go possibly, the way of all flesh. “Events, ..” as Harold Macmillan noted. This week, at Berkshire Hathaway and Murdoch Corp. Succession plans and their domino effects are hard enough to implement in ‘normal’ firms. In monoliths identified with one great man, the challenges are multiplied. GE being an exception. The deep bench model, which they invented, is easy to advocate. But the leaders and firms who have both the long term cultivation of talent front and center, and who assiduously plan succession and implement accordingly, are still rare. And often serve as talent engines for other institutions. As for stepping into the shoes of a Mr Buffet or Mr Murdoch? Winnable or not, whoever end up in those spots will be in pretty unchartered executive leadership territory. Or better said, entrepreneurial.
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Are we there yet?
Observer January 19th, 2011
Having taken a live a little, learn a lot approach to the crisis, time to scan horizons, starting with the upcoming corporate reporting season. Five years. That’s what, in 2008, a sagacious colleague assumed it would take to get the worse behind us. So depending on which ripple defined for you the moment of impending doom, we may only be somewhere around or beyond the halfway mark. (Mine was UBS missing its numbers in August 2007, reinforced dramatically by Lehman being let go in October 2008). But there are certainly reasons to be cheerful: Germany, Asia, emerging markets in and beyond the BRIC group. Equity markets. Apple, as a proxy for discretionary spending. But many counterpoints too. If you’re looking to be encouraged, don’t look to the WEF, at least as they review global system risk and present vulnerability to shocks. Cool heads as they were the last couple of years, no gongs here for that leadership vibe of optimism. Not even cautiously so. Nonetheless, they earn kudos for convening the network that might evolve once the idea of ‘global governance’ to manage such shocks in the future.
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Crisis management?
Observer January 31st, 2009
…Jamie Dimon’s mutterances of impatience at Davos speak for many as we continue to cut a path through the unchartered territority of the first truly global financial crisis. The US could normally be expected to step into the breach and lead the task of coordinating across key players that might begin to address it. For the moment the crisis is still at best in a holding pattern, crying out for the surfacing of a global leadership approach. Mr Sarkosy and Mr Brown have both been proactive, but likely lack the clout beyond the postures, added to which the newsflow at home now begins to menace. Mr Obama has been focusing on first winning then transitioning into the WhiteHouse and while his mandate is clear and his economic team credible, the mess in large part has been ‘made in the US’. So step forward Angela Merkel, who recently impressed with a thought-through program for Germany: Time for some boxing and coxing and to invite Mr Obama back to Berlin for a special session, with, as Mr Dimon pleas, the right people in the room for the task at hand.
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Another day…
Observer September 30th, 2008
…..another bail out, or not. As we watch with a macabre fascination the Wall Street story getting grim, grim and grimmer, the Republican failure to pass a bill of its own president’s making, in what is clearly a fast spiralling crisis, speaks loudly to the leadership failure of the Bush years. The market meltdown is now caught up well and truly in the mire of politics. Setting aside social outrage at executive pay on the one hand and free market ideology on the other, it appears that many on main street were also tempted and or persuaded to speculate, in the belief that ’safe as houses’ meant exactly that. In the event that Obama’s candidacy for the presidency becomes a surer and surer thing, the chaotic closing out of the incumbent administration, and the global hope now invested in him, will make his task all the harder. One of his biggest challenges will be to manage expectations.
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The Clinton miss
Observer June 25th, 2008
… on the Clinton miss, the asymmetrical information was all his to leverage (known unknowns) and hers to defend (very well-known knowns). On certain levels she did remarkably despite the lorryloads of information about her and her wider organization, including the mixed blessing of her enduringly popular husband. At a distance it’s still hard to see quite why she’s so loved on the one hand and loathed on the other. Conversely it’s easier to grasp the broad appeal of Barack Obama, naturally gracious, and with time on his side. The newsflow too. Iraq ameliorating by some reports, Mandella at 90, and Hillary pitching in with her own brand of graciousness, can all but help. And Obama’s own campaign, already highly impactful, is ticking up an assertiveness, which he will undoubtedly need in the upcoming furlongs between now and November. The hints at warmth between him and Hillary in the past few days would not make it far-fetched that she’s still compelling as a possible running mate.
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